Potential Migrations Flows from
Central and Eastern Europe to Austria
After the Enlargement
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche
(WIIW)
Jubiläümsfondsprojekt
Nr.7919
Vienna, June 2000
Table of contents
Migration from 10 CEE accession countries to Austria will, given liberalization of movements of people expected after the Enlargement, depend on a number of factors. These factors include, in the first place, the gap in the affluence levels, reflected in the p.c. GDP ratios. Other factors, such as the geographical distance, the size of the host country (or host region), and its labor market situation (rate of unemployment) will also be important.
The study assumes that the GDP gaps (CEE-10 vs. Austria) will be closing, over the next 10 years. There are two sets of probable growth rates (two scenarios) - an optimistic and a pessimistic one. With the help on an econometric model relating migration to the GDP gaps (and other factors), the estimates of changes in the stocks of CEE-10 nationals residing in Austria (and in individual Austrian regions, or Länder) are then derived.
In the optimistic (high-growth) scenario, one expects the stock of migrant to increase by about 187 thousand persons - close to 50% of them coming from Romania and Bulgaria, less than 40% from the 5 "first-round accession" accession countries. The bulk of migration (124 thousand) will be absorbed by Vienna and Lower Austria.
In the pessimistic (low growth) scenario, one should expect 302 thousand new migrants settling down in Austria. The shares of individual CEE in total migration will not change significantly (as compared with the high-growth scenario) and Vienna, together with Lower Austria would have to absorb over 200 thousand new migrants.
