The migration model was applied to estimate the potential emigration from the CEE-10 countries to the regions of Austria. We assumed the uniform 2% p.c. GDP grow rate (yearly) for all Austrian regions (and unchanged other regional characteristics - population and unemployment rates), Tables 5 and 6 show the migration pressure by countries of origin, and by host regions of Austria. A more detailed information on the forecasts (migration pressure matrices) are presented in Annex Tables 1-2.

Table 5 shows the migration potential by countries of origin. Independently of the scenario, close to 50% of all the immigrants are likely to come from the Balkan countries (from 91 to 147 thousand). Under the low growth scenario a significant immigration pressure can appear from Poland and Slovakia (87 thousand) and from Hungary and Czech Republic (72 thousand). However, the faster growth and convergence can strongly reduce the migration pressure from Central Europe, to 45 thousand from Poland and Slovakia and 45 thousand from Hungary and Czech Republic. The migration pressure from the Baltic countries and Slovenia will be negligible (5-10 thousand).

Altogether, the migration pressure is likely to reach from 186 thousand people under the optimistic scenario to 302 thousand under the pessimistic scenario. In the optimistic scenario, compared to the pessimistic one, implies the reduction in the number of potential immigrants by about one-third).

Our model one can not provide answers on who will migrate but it may be expected that the migration will concentrate in two groups:

1. relatively low skilled workers who will accept jobs for which there will be not enough candidates of Austrian origin; and

well educated specialists the demand for which will be higher than the supply at the Austrians.

Table 6 and two graphs show the geographical distribution of the potential immigration to Austria. The majority of the potential immigrants will try to settle down in Wien and Niederösterreich (67%). These two regions will face the immigration pressure ranging from 120 to 200 thousand people. Such a pressure may increase the share of immigrants from CEE-10 living in the two regions in total population by 4% under the optimistic, and 7% under the pessimistic scenario.

Under the pessimistic scenario a significant migration pressure may also appear in the case of Oberösterreich (44 thousand potential immigrants, i.e. the increase of the share of immigrants from CEE-10 living in the region by 3.7%).

Altogether, the share of immigrants from CEE-10 living in Austria is likely to grow significantly under the pessimistic scenario¹ (by about 4%), but much more modestly under the optimistic scenario (by about 2%). The Western and Southern regions of Austria do not have serious reasons to be afraid, particularly if the optimistic scenario materializes.

The fears of the huge emigration flows after the Enlargement are mainly based on the current differences in income levels. Indeed, if the current relations were to stay over time, the expected flow of emigration would be much higher. However, we believe that the EU enlargement will allow CEE-10 to continue the fast GDP growth and will, gradually, close the development gap between Eastern and Western part of Europe.

1. According to loose estimates, at the end of 1997 the share of CEE-10 nationals residing in Austria was about 1.3% of Austrian population (or slightly over 100,000 persons).